الشعر و الشعراء / Poetry & Poets قسم خاص لكتابة الاشعار... وبوح المشاعر ..

إضافة رد
 
LinkBack أدوات الموضوع انواع عرض الموضوع
  #1  
قديم 11-19-2010, 08:11 AM
RSS RSS غير متواجد حالياً

ViP

 
تاريخ التسجيل: Mar 2010
المشاركات: 25,012
معدل تقييم المستوى: 76
RSS has much to be proud ofRSS has much to be proud ofRSS has much to be proud ofRSS has much to be proud ofRSS has much to be proud ofRSS has much to be proud ofRSS has much to be proud ofRSS has much to be proud ofRSS has much to be proud ofRSS has much to be proud ofRSS has much to be proud of
افتراضي A Bad Plan Poorly Disguised

*A Bad Plan Poorly Disguised* * by John Browne * November 17, 2010 With our economy sagging and our international clout waning, one of...

A Bad Plan Poorly Disguised

* by John Browne
* November 17, 2010

With our economy sagging and our international clout waning, one of the few assets upon which the United States can rely is the confidence that the rest of the world has traditionally showered upon us. That confidence is the reason why the U.S. dollar was elevated to global reserve status more than 65 years ago.

With so much riding on perception, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner's recent statements denying the existence of a dollar debasement campaign could not be seen as anything less than foolhardy.

Responding to a critique made in a Financial Times opinion piece by former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, Geithner asserted, "We will never seek to weaken our currency as a tool to gain competitive advantage or to grow the economy." Instead, he attributed recent dollar weakness to the reversal of "safe haven" capital flows that had been legion during the financial crisis but which have abated as the global economy has recovered.

One must scour the earth with great care to find an individual who would agree with Mr. Geithner on this point. It's clear from myriad other actions that the Administration sees a weaker dollar as a panacea for our economic problems. The blatant misinformation relayed by the Treasury Secretary could only have served to further increase already high tensions at the G-20 summit in Seoul, South Korea.

Over at the Federal Reserve, Chairman Bernanke doesn't talk about currency debasement. Instead, he extols the virtues of "pushing up inflation to levels consistent with our mandate." He hopes that no one will understand that he is using different adjectives to describe the same action. With the possible exception of the New York Times editorial board, he is fooling no one.

Given that the Administration and the Fed are prepared to sacrifice precious credibility for the goal of currency debasement, many may assume that there is some benefit for America that would be derived from a weaker dollar. Unfortunately, there isn't.

Advocates of a weaker dollar point to two claimed advantages offered by a falling currency:

First, and most obviously, proponents claim that cheap dollars would reduce the prices of U.S. exports, making them increasingly competitive. That is partially correct. While lowering prices may help to spur sales in the short-term, it does not necessarily improve the long-term prospects of the seller.

Exporters (and all other businesses for that matter) that focus on selling on price competitiveness alone ignore other vital elements of the marketing mix, such as innovation, design, quality, delivery, and after-sales service. For example, Germany and Japan have developed world-leading export volumes without relying on price as their primary advantage.

History shows that, over the medium- to long-term, a devalued currency leads to increased trade deficits. Furthermore, a currency debasement policy for the U.S. dollar, still the world's reserve currency, is bound to spark a climate of international competitive devaluation –a currency war–as each nation fights to protect its balance of trade. If not corrected, such currency battles lead all too easily to trade wars, and they, in turn, often result in armed conflict.

The second, and more compelling, argument for Washington to pursue currency debasement is that a devalued dollar would wipe out large amounts of dollar debt. This amounts to a huge subsidy to debtors at the expense of savers, and no one owes more than the U.S. government.

When measured against the standard basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar has fallen by some 30% over the past decade. However, most of those currencies are also depreciating in real terms. So what is real? Most likely, precious metals' prices, discounted somewhat to allow for investor speculation, represent an absolute measure. Silver has risen by some 56% in the past 10 months. Gold has gained some 30% this year, and some 400% over the past decade!

So if we assume a conservative 40% devaluation of the dollar over the past ten years, our current $13.4 trillion federal debt is equivalent to an only $8 trillion liability in 2001 dollars–the rest is just inflation. The $189 trillion of unfunded obligations to Social Security, Medicare, government pensions, etc., would appear as $113 trillion a decade ago!

It is clear that a debased currency suits the U.S. government, but what of Americans? The 40% devaluation equates to a 40% tax on every holder of U.S. dollars, rich and poor alike. It has hindered, rather than encouraged, consumer spending. It forces Americans to make do with less, purchase shoddier products, and deal with inferior service. Sometimes it's hard to perceive slowly ebbing living standards, but take a look around and think whether you feel richer than a decade ago.

If dollar devaluation becomes too pronounced, Washington threatens to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs: namely, the dollar's reserve status. If that were to happen, a global financial crisis of staggering intensity would surely erupt, the resolution of which would not favor the United States.

Whether or not it is openly acknowledged, the U.S. government is pursuing a policy of great risk that offers no reward at the end of the tunnel. It's the worst of all possible worlds. Wise investors will reduce still further their exposure to U.S. dollars and debt, while increasing their allocations to precious metals, key commodities, hard currencies, and emerging markets. Wise governments are already doing so.

John Browne is an investment advisor, financial commentator and a former member of Britain's Parliament who served on the Treasury Select Committee and as a close associate of then-Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher.
http://prudentbear.com/index.php/gue...w?art_id=10470


*A Bad Plan Poorly Disguised* * by John Browne * November 17, 2010 With our economy sagging and our international clout waning, one of the few assets upon which the United States can rely is the confidence that the rest of the world has traditionally showered upon us. That confidence...
الموضوع الأصلى من هنا: منتديات القرصان http://www.alkrsan.net/forum/caoun-ae-caounca-poetry-and-poets/31767-a-bad-plan-poorly-disguised.html

A Bad Plan Poorly Disguised
Digg this Post!Add Post to del.icio.usBookmark Post in TechnoratiFurl this Post!
رد مع اقتباس
إضافة رد

العلامات المرجعية


يتصفح الموضوع حالياً : 1 (0 عضو و 1 ضيف)
 
أدوات الموضوع
انواع عرض الموضوع

ضوابط المشاركة
لا تستطيع إضافة مواضيع جديدة
لا تستطيع الرد على المواضيع
لا يمكنك اضافة مرفقات
لا يمكنك تعديل مشاركاتك

BB code متاحة
كود [IMG] متاحة
كود HTML معطلة
Trackbacks are معطلة
Pingbacks are معطلة
Refbacks are معطلة



جميع الأوقات بتوقيت GMT +3. الساعة الآن 02:21 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.5
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Content Relevant URLs by vBSEO 3.5.1 PL1

تعريب » القرصان - خدمات الويب

جميع الحقوق محفوظة alkrsan 2006-2014


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 270 271 272 273 274 275 276 277 278 279 280 281 282 283 284 285 286 287 288 289 290 291 292 293 294 295 296 297 298 299 300 301 302 303 304 305 306 307 308 309 310 311 312 313 314 315 316 317 318 319 320 321 322 323 324 325 326 327 328 329 330 331 332 333 334 335 336 337 338 339 340 341 342 343 344 345 346 347 348 349 350 351 352 353 354 355 356 357 358 359 360 361 362 363 364 365 366 367 368 369 370 371 372 373 374 375 376 377 378 379 380 381 382 383 384 385 386 387 388 389 390 391 392 393 394 395 396 397 398 399 400 401 402 403 404 405 406 407 408 409 410 411 412 413 414 415 416 417 418 419 420 421 422 423 424 425 426 427 428 429 430 431 432 433 434 435 436 437 438 439 440 441 442 443 444 445 446 447 448 449 450 451 452 453 454 455 456 457 458 459 460 461 462 463 464 465 466 467 468 469 470 471 472 473 474 475 476 477 478 479 480 481 482 483 484 485 486 487 488 489 490 491 492 493 494 495 496 497 498 499 500 501 502 503 504 505 506 507 508 509 510 511 512 513 514 515 516